CEO Technology Guide: Prediction Markets

Businessweek has an interesting collection of articles about prediction markets, seen as means to make better decisions (in complex situations) after all.

Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and forecasting future events.

This is cool, but I fear that all this introductory stuff (like the podcast ‘CEO guide to Predicition Markets’) is heating up the craze of wisdom of crowds, when implementation is still all but clear. Replicating best practices won’t work here, because there are so many issues to be resolved, like e.g. incentives, platforms, rules etc.

See, the technology is just starting to make its way into corporate pilot projects, read the section anyway, it’s good, and tell me your ideas to use PM in the complex business model innovation space. I suggest there may be specific uses – until then I will cast predicition markets into the same “toolbox” where scenario management and this old behemoth “strategic planning and decision making” reside.

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