{"id":851,"date":"2007-07-12T21:00:15","date_gmt":"2007-07-12T19:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/index.php\/archive\/six-rules-for-accurate-effective-forecasting\/"},"modified":"2007-07-12T21:05:07","modified_gmt":"2007-07-12T19:05:07","slug":"six-rules-for-accurate-effective-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/2007\/07\/six-rules-for-accurate-effective-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Six Rules for Accurate Effective Forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Paul_Saffo\">Paul Saffo<\/a> has the cover of the latest issue of Harvard Business Review, with an essay on &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu\/hbsp\/hbr\/articles\/article.jsp?ml_action=get-article&#038;articleID=R0707K&#038;ml_issueid=BR0707&#038;ml_subscriber=true&#038;pageNumber=1&#038;_requestid=7913\">Six Rules for Accurate Effective Forecasting<\/a>&#8220;. Moreover here&#8217;s the <a href=\"http:\/\/media.libsyn.com\/media\/hbsp2\/HBR_IdeaCast_51__Six_Rules_for_Effective_Forecasting.mp3\">mp3<\/a> of HBR&#8217;s ideacast, where Cathy Olofson talks with (veteran Silicon Valley-based forecaster, they call him) Paul Saffo about his article.<\/p>\n<p>One of many memorable quote from the article is this:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I will quote the six rules, knowing that they can&#8217;t stand the test without the article, yet they give insight into how futurists think about their work &#8211; I really love #3, 4, 5: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>* Rule 1: Define a Cone of Uncertainty<br \/>\n    * Rule 2: Look for the S Curve<br \/>\n    * Rule 3: Embrace the Things That Don\u2019t Fit<br \/>\n    * Rule 4: Hold Strong Opinions Weakly<br \/>\n    * Rule 5: Look Back Twice as Far as You Look Forward<br \/>\n    * Rule 6: Know When Not to Make a Forecast<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>BTW, it looks like HBR has changed its content and blogger policy, you have to pass a kind of agreement screen, where I agreed not to post more than 500 words from any of their articles and to provide a backlink to them &#8211; looks like a fair deal to me.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Paul Saffo has the cover of the latest issue of Harvard Business Review, with an essay on &#8220;Six Rules for Accurate Effective Forecasting&#8220;. Moreover here&#8217;s the mp3 of HBR&#8217;s ideacast, where Cathy Olofson talks with (veteran Silicon Valley-based forecaster, they call him) Paul Saffo about his article. One of many memorable quote from the article [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1,11,4,8],"tags":[122,298,24,481,115,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=851"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/851\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.martin-koser.de\/BMID\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}